Fight Overview:
Thurman needs to stay disciplined and box with distance control and lateral movement. If he engages Garcia in a brawl he is going to get caught as Garcia has superior timing. Garcia has problems with boxers that keep distance and aren't stationary punchers. Thurman's temperament is to stand and trade for at least a handful of moments in each bout but he is smart enough to avoid such altercations with his above average footwork. Garcia is there to be hit in every fight but he uses that to his advantage. The timing on his counters is impeccable. Danny is one of the few fighters who stands in the pocket knowing he'll be hit to deliver the perfect timing on his return fire.
Power:
Thurman has far better natural power but his opponents can always see his punches coming. The fact that he can still KO his opponents while they see his punches is a testament to his punching power.
Conversely, Danny's power is predicated on his timing. Most of his KO victims never see the punch that hurt them.
Chin:
Danny has a world class chin as he is hit hard in almost every fight he is involved in minus the Paulie fight hahaha. Thurman is more vulnerable in that sense as he's been hurt in a handful of his fights. Most notably against Soto Karass and Collazo. That advantage is decreased when you factor in that Danny is still adjusting to the welterweight class.
Experience:
They both have had plenty of experience in their previous fights to get them ready for this clash. Both Danny and Keith can be the lead or fight off the back foot. I suppose Danny has more world-class comp overall, but that was back in the 140 pound weight division.
Range:
Danny prefers to counter but wants to control the range in which the fight is fought in (medium range). His hooks at that range are his best offensive weapon. Keith prefers to keep his range on the outside and load up on his punches when he can.
Weaknesses:
Danny is susceptible to Keith's jab and counter because he has a tendency to reach when out of range with his own jab. Keith is susceptible to Danny's hooks because he gets carried away with his power and wants to exchange at a closer than optimal range.
Coaching:
The corner edge decidedly goes to Dan Birmingham.(Keith's coach) He has trained several world class prospects and Angel Garcia only has the one, his son, Danny Garcia. Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards brings up a great point I may be over looking though. A strong father/son bond is a greater motivating factor than a trainer/son relationship would ever be. Tactically though, no comparison. Birmingham's interview on Thaboxingvoice's youtube channel provides great insight on his boxing acumen. The interviewer on that channel, like myself, highlighted Danny's timing. Birmingham's response? Feints, which works two-fold. Feints keep Danny more flat footed/slow of foot than he already is and throws a counter fighter's timing off.
Intangibles/Pick:
With the eye test, Keith seems to have better speed and power. Danny has better balance and timing. The height and reach seem to be even. Whoever has better discipline and dictates the range of the fight wins. I see this as a 60/40 fight in Thurman's favor so......At the current odds I'd sprinkle a little on Danny Garcia as a 2.5 to 1 dog for the value.
Sidenote. It's funny to me after watching Hurd vs Harrison this past weekend both fighters with the nickname 'Swift' seem to get similar reps from the critics. (I want to specifically call out Virgil Hunter's asinine assessment of Hurd v Harrison. How does a world class trainer disregard in-fight momentum and ineffective partially landed punches? I had no problem with his live scoring as that's all subjective but his bias towards one fighter was elementary. He harped on a single adjustment Hurd should be making throughout the fight while he himself refused or quite simply ignored how he should adjust his commentary with what was going on inside the ring.) Although they have completely different styles, both Danny Garcia and Jarrett Hurd get no credit on their wins. Everyone thinks they are so vulnerable yet they keep winning. They both lack speed so everyone always shits on them but in the squared circle timing>speed.
Monday, February 27, 2017
Thursday, February 4, 2016
The unjust hate on Guillermo Rigondeaux and Danny Garcia
While scouring various popular boxing forums I noticed two polarizing figures in active boxing that consistently catch flack whatever move they make, El Chacal and DSG. While their styles are completely different their criticisms are surprisingly similar.
The main criticism of Rigondeaux is he makes boring fights. People infer, with his skill level, he should be able to dominate and stop lesser fighters in a more exciting manner. He always does barely enough to win and looks disinterested after he establishes that he is the better fighter in the ring. I believe there is a remedy to this common perception. Stop being self centered, put yourself in Rigondeaux's shoes. Why on earth would you risk taking further damage when you know you have a fight won? Isn't the saying, 'live to fight another day?' Also, isn't boxing the sweet science? 'To hit and not get hit.' Anyone who's actual been in the squared circle knows how much risk is involved, one mistake could be all it takes. 'Styles make fights.' Rigondeaux is a boxer-puncher who is at his best when counter fighting. It's not his fault his skills freeze the opponent into doing nothing. If they're gonna make it that easy for him, why wouldn't he take it? At the end of the day, this man is fighting against professional caliber boxers. I get that boxing is also called prizefighting and we as fans want excitement but in my estimation it should be exciting enough that Rigondeaux is winning against world class fighters. Theoretically, these guys are risking their lives every time out. Excitement is subjective just like opinions, I'm just trying to add a little perspective. (Think of Floyd, the least you can do is cheer for Rigondeaux to lose, but respect his skill.)
Similarly, critics are under the impression Danny Garcia fights to the level of his opposition and just barely does enough to win. The difference is all of Garcia's fights are interesting because more often than not he's in a fire fight. Danny is a versatile puncher-boxer that can initiate the offense and is willing to trade blow for blow, but can box when he is fighting pressure fighters. It is not by choice Danny is in close fights he barely pulls out, nonetheless, everyone is a pessimist when it comes to him. Critics don't value his ability to change style and adjust midfight, i.e. against Morales the first time around, Khan, Matthysse, Guerrero. While I play devil's advocate and say Danny has a clutch gene, the general majority says he continually has the judges favor. Remember, when something is consistent, it isn't luck. When else has a fighter been in fights universally viewed as high level drama and still been hated for it. No one hates Amir Khan for being KOed almost every time out, it's entertaining. I feel as though Danny would be less critiqued had he lost some of his close decisions and it's outright ridiculous.
The secondary criticism these two both catch is their recent opposition, Now, this seems pretty straight forward but there's more than meets the eye.
Let's tackle Rigondeaux's opposition first. After a surprisingly close fight with Cordoba he steadily built up to fighting a p4p fighter(at the time) in Nonito Donaire. This was supposed to be his big coming out party after blowing out Teon Kennedy with mulitple knockdowns in 5. Save from the lone knockdown he incurred, Rigondeaux embarassed a world class Donaire with his superior boxing skills. Strangely enough, he received blacklash from the boxing community because of his dominance. First from his ex-promoter Bob Arum which shouldn't be surprising, because he represents Donaire and no longer Rigondeaux. Then from boxing scribes such as Dan Rafael of ESPN. Because of like promoters and critics with huge social media platforms the public was brainwashed into thinking Rigondeaux is 'boring.' After that fight, Rigondeaux has been black balled into fighting secondary level fighters and being blamed for his fights lacking in action. I question why he has to take all the chances in a fight when he is a known counter puncher. It's on his opposition to try to dethrone him, not the other way around. I challenge you to watch the Teon Kennedy, Nonito Donaire, Sod Kokietgym, and Hihashi Amagasa fights and form your own opinion. The two bouts Rigondeaux has been in that has been absent of action are against Agebko and Francisco. In those bouts, both Agbeko and Franciso, known to be action fighters, stopped throwing, in fear of getting countered. Styles makes fights and it's up to both fighters to engage, not just one. Logically, why would you chase when you're winning. The losing fighter should try to make up ground to win, shouldn't he?
Look at Danny Garcia's record. How can you criticize who he's fought. Few can argue he didn't clean out the 140 division. Theophane, Arnaoutis, Campbell, Holt, Morales, Khan, Judah, Matthysse, Two fights into his welterweight foray people have already forgotten what he's done. It' not easy transitioning up to a higher weight class. Look at Khan, Donaire, Alexander, Broner to name a few who've lost. Not even that, all his fights, save Salka, have been close. You can not have both sides of the argument. If you think he's fighting weak opposition you have to take solace in the fact all these fights have been close. If you think he's always getting the benefit of the decisions fighting equal and lesser fighters in the lower weight classes how can he jump up to the elites of a new division right away?
Fighters fight who they can. I don't see anyone blaming GGG for his lack of top notch opposition or putting his foot in his mouth about fighting anyone from 54 to 68, especially against Ward. Not many blame Canelo for holding a middleweight title hostage while he fights marginal competition at a made up weight of 155. They are media darlings. People love these fighters because they have 'hype' around them. Why does Andre Ward get a pass and Garcia doesn't. After the Super 6 tourney Ward hasn't fought anyone with a pulse. Their careers are pretty similar by record, weight jump, and level of opponents. I guarantee you LSC vs Rigo wouldn't be boring. Garcia's next fight might be the winner of Porter/ Thurman. I believe we should be harsher critics of promotional companies because they have the power to build a fighter up to the public perception, or blame ourselves for not thinking for ourselves. Crawford has the one big win against Gamboa and he's the next big thing because Gamboa brought the fight to him. Rigo similarly beat Donaire yet he was labeled boring because of politics. When Devon Alexander got his first big shot against Bradley and looked awful in a pitiful fight why was he given numerous chances afterwards? Fighters are only to blame when they act like divas in negotiation. Cotto, I'll call out. Canelo's management is turning him into one. Floyd was one. Amir Khan. Adonis Chickenson. Austin Trout running from J Rock. JMM being a sore loser his whole life and clearly being on the juice. Fighters should stick to fighting and nothing else.
The main criticism of Rigondeaux is he makes boring fights. People infer, with his skill level, he should be able to dominate and stop lesser fighters in a more exciting manner. He always does barely enough to win and looks disinterested after he establishes that he is the better fighter in the ring. I believe there is a remedy to this common perception. Stop being self centered, put yourself in Rigondeaux's shoes. Why on earth would you risk taking further damage when you know you have a fight won? Isn't the saying, 'live to fight another day?' Also, isn't boxing the sweet science? 'To hit and not get hit.' Anyone who's actual been in the squared circle knows how much risk is involved, one mistake could be all it takes. 'Styles make fights.' Rigondeaux is a boxer-puncher who is at his best when counter fighting. It's not his fault his skills freeze the opponent into doing nothing. If they're gonna make it that easy for him, why wouldn't he take it? At the end of the day, this man is fighting against professional caliber boxers. I get that boxing is also called prizefighting and we as fans want excitement but in my estimation it should be exciting enough that Rigondeaux is winning against world class fighters. Theoretically, these guys are risking their lives every time out. Excitement is subjective just like opinions, I'm just trying to add a little perspective. (Think of Floyd, the least you can do is cheer for Rigondeaux to lose, but respect his skill.)
Similarly, critics are under the impression Danny Garcia fights to the level of his opposition and just barely does enough to win. The difference is all of Garcia's fights are interesting because more often than not he's in a fire fight. Danny is a versatile puncher-boxer that can initiate the offense and is willing to trade blow for blow, but can box when he is fighting pressure fighters. It is not by choice Danny is in close fights he barely pulls out, nonetheless, everyone is a pessimist when it comes to him. Critics don't value his ability to change style and adjust midfight, i.e. against Morales the first time around, Khan, Matthysse, Guerrero. While I play devil's advocate and say Danny has a clutch gene, the general majority says he continually has the judges favor. Remember, when something is consistent, it isn't luck. When else has a fighter been in fights universally viewed as high level drama and still been hated for it. No one hates Amir Khan for being KOed almost every time out, it's entertaining. I feel as though Danny would be less critiqued had he lost some of his close decisions and it's outright ridiculous.
The secondary criticism these two both catch is their recent opposition, Now, this seems pretty straight forward but there's more than meets the eye.
Let's tackle Rigondeaux's opposition first. After a surprisingly close fight with Cordoba he steadily built up to fighting a p4p fighter(at the time) in Nonito Donaire. This was supposed to be his big coming out party after blowing out Teon Kennedy with mulitple knockdowns in 5. Save from the lone knockdown he incurred, Rigondeaux embarassed a world class Donaire with his superior boxing skills. Strangely enough, he received blacklash from the boxing community because of his dominance. First from his ex-promoter Bob Arum which shouldn't be surprising, because he represents Donaire and no longer Rigondeaux. Then from boxing scribes such as Dan Rafael of ESPN. Because of like promoters and critics with huge social media platforms the public was brainwashed into thinking Rigondeaux is 'boring.' After that fight, Rigondeaux has been black balled into fighting secondary level fighters and being blamed for his fights lacking in action. I question why he has to take all the chances in a fight when he is a known counter puncher. It's on his opposition to try to dethrone him, not the other way around. I challenge you to watch the Teon Kennedy, Nonito Donaire, Sod Kokietgym, and Hihashi Amagasa fights and form your own opinion. The two bouts Rigondeaux has been in that has been absent of action are against Agebko and Francisco. In those bouts, both Agbeko and Franciso, known to be action fighters, stopped throwing, in fear of getting countered. Styles makes fights and it's up to both fighters to engage, not just one. Logically, why would you chase when you're winning. The losing fighter should try to make up ground to win, shouldn't he?
Look at Danny Garcia's record. How can you criticize who he's fought. Few can argue he didn't clean out the 140 division. Theophane, Arnaoutis, Campbell, Holt, Morales, Khan, Judah, Matthysse, Two fights into his welterweight foray people have already forgotten what he's done. It' not easy transitioning up to a higher weight class. Look at Khan, Donaire, Alexander, Broner to name a few who've lost. Not even that, all his fights, save Salka, have been close. You can not have both sides of the argument. If you think he's fighting weak opposition you have to take solace in the fact all these fights have been close. If you think he's always getting the benefit of the decisions fighting equal and lesser fighters in the lower weight classes how can he jump up to the elites of a new division right away?
Fighters fight who they can. I don't see anyone blaming GGG for his lack of top notch opposition or putting his foot in his mouth about fighting anyone from 54 to 68, especially against Ward. Not many blame Canelo for holding a middleweight title hostage while he fights marginal competition at a made up weight of 155. They are media darlings. People love these fighters because they have 'hype' around them. Why does Andre Ward get a pass and Garcia doesn't. After the Super 6 tourney Ward hasn't fought anyone with a pulse. Their careers are pretty similar by record, weight jump, and level of opponents. I guarantee you LSC vs Rigo wouldn't be boring. Garcia's next fight might be the winner of Porter/ Thurman. I believe we should be harsher critics of promotional companies because they have the power to build a fighter up to the public perception, or blame ourselves for not thinking for ourselves. Crawford has the one big win against Gamboa and he's the next big thing because Gamboa brought the fight to him. Rigo similarly beat Donaire yet he was labeled boring because of politics. When Devon Alexander got his first big shot against Bradley and looked awful in a pitiful fight why was he given numerous chances afterwards? Fighters are only to blame when they act like divas in negotiation. Cotto, I'll call out. Canelo's management is turning him into one. Floyd was one. Amir Khan. Adonis Chickenson. Austin Trout running from J Rock. JMM being a sore loser his whole life and clearly being on the juice. Fighters should stick to fighting and nothing else.
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
#KHANELO?! rant.
First reaction. Is this shit real? Amir Khan is moving up from 147 to fight Canelo at 155? WTF. This is Canelo's 5th consecutive fight at Caneloweight (155). Such bullshit by Canelo and his handlers @GBP. If you're a middleweight champ fight at fucking middleweight you fucking pussies. Wasn't Canelo supposed to take an interim bout to get ready for GGG? I'll have no respect left for Golden Boy Promotions if they have Canelo stick at this bullshit weight limit to avoid GGG. Canelo walks around at 175-180 in between fights for fuck's sake.
Now that the initial outburst is out of the way let's break the fight down objectively.
Breakdown of Khan:
Khan made the switch from HOF trainer Freddie Roach to Virgil Hunter for one reason. Fix his defense. Khan was continually getting hurt from lightweight to super lightweight with the reputation of having a glass chin. Having always been physically gifted, his technique was lacking in his fundamentals. Khan had a decorated amateur career because his natural skill set and style. He has top notch speed and accuracy in his punches. He further refined his offensive arsenal and combination punching working with Freddie Roach. His defense, well, it never progressed like his offense. General consensus of Freddie's defensive teachings are to move away at angles after throwing combinations. To dumb it down, fighting in bursts. The fighter jumps into fighting range, fires a combo, then jumps out at a different angle, rinse, repeat. Theoretically, this style was perfect for Khan as he has/had the necessary speed to pull this off ala Pacquiao. Khan's problem is/was purely fundamental. He has quick feet but horrible footwork. He pulls straight back after firing instead of slipping and angling out. (Khan personally blames his lack of chin on his weight cuts. He may have a point as that shit does matter if it was excessive.)
Enter Virgil Hunter. His boxing philosophy is completely different than Freddie's in that he wants his fighters to stay in the pocket to catch and counter the opponent, not jump in and out. Virgil wants his fighters to stay in fighting distance more frequently so that his fighter sees all the punches and doesn't panic in the middle of trading. Essentially he's trying to get rid of the bad habit of Khan pulling his head straight back with his chin exposed. Problem is, this style doesn't fit Khan. Khan looked like he was regressing under Virgil Hunter with his last fight vs Algieri. Khan was more off balance in the pocket in that fight than fights prior and he was still getting hurt with both straight rights and left hooks. This was probably the worst a fighter can look in a win barring disqualification. Algieri has 8KOs in 23 fights mind you. Virgil's philosophy just isn't right for Khan. It's not about Khan staying in the pocket and defending shots. Everyone always times Khan while he is in the middle of throwing a combination. He is too egotistical of a fighter and thinks he's infinitely faster everyone else. Ok, he is faster than everyone else, but you can't just throw a 6 punch combo every time without the opposition throwing at least one hard shot back. In that sense, Freddie's style suited him better because it relied on speed as defense. Ironically, the winning game plan for Khan in his fight would be to box and move....Freddie's method. Khan's foolish confidence is his weakness.
Khan's advantages in his fight are surprisingly his physical attributes. Although listed at or near the same height as Canelo, Khan has the length advantage. He's got the longer reach. He's naturally faster and he weighs less, so, as usual he has the speed advantage.
I personally hope he gets knocked the fuck out and retires as he is delusional already anyway. The good thing about having your own blog is you don't have to be politically correct hahaha.
Breakdown of Canelo:
Saul Canelo Alvarez is supposed to be the new breed of proud Mexican fighter. That statement could not ring any truer. He is the new breed. Gone is the Mexican style of trading in the middle of the ring or brawling the opponent into submission. He's a thinking man's fighter, contrary to the Mexican champions of old. He's more of Juan Manuel Marquez than a Chavez Sr., Barrera, Morales, Vargas, or De La Hoya. At his core, Canelo is a counter puncher. He has issues in the ring with movers, those who can box on the back foot, as he has a tougher time generating his own offense than capitalizing on the mistakes of others. Luckily for him Khan is an all out offensive fighter and he makes a lot of mistakes. Canelo has progressed nicely ever since the Mayweather fight, showing improved skills in successive bouts thereafter. That loss was the best thing for him as a person and I sincerely mean that as cliche as it sounds. Him and his fucking retard of a team got matching tattoos of the date of his first professional loss because they were so confident in victory that night. Even Scotty P would 'ragret' that shit. I was scared he was gonna turn into another Khan, but I digress. Canelo showed he can pressure better with Kirkland, He showed he can move with Lara, and he showed off his improved defense and stamina against Cotto.
Too bad De La Hoya is turning him into a fucking diva. I think De La Hoya is vicariously living through Canelo because he cannot live out his exposed cross dressing fantasies any longer. What the fuck is this 155 bullshit. Please fight at 160. And fuck the WBC for not regulating on whoever is their cash cow atm.
Overview:
Both fighters have advantages on paper. Khan: speed, reach, height, slight edge in stamina. Canelo: weight, footwork, boxing iq, recent activity. I believe Canelo's advantages outweigh Khan's because Khan sucks ass using his advantages. Khan is faster than everyone he faces. Khan's speed and hubris is actually what gets him caught from counters. Khan hasn't fought in a year. Canelo has fought at 155 five times, Khan is moving up in weight. Canelo has better trainers and Virgil isn't right for Khan. As a matter of fact fuck Virgil Hunter that creepy bastard. He challenged Keith Thurman to a fight legitimately thinking he can win. He's probably the one egging Khan on. Canelo is a smarter fighter. If it seems like I'm being bias against Khan I'm not. I hate both these mother fuckers. I'll be equally as happy that one of these clowns will have lost come fight night. Difference is Canelo's improving skills have slowly earned my respect. That doesn't stop me from suggesting Canelo's team should get another tattoo the next time he loses to keep the tradition alive.
For the record:
I truly believe 90% of fighters are not scared to fight anyone. Boxers are people that make a living fighting. I don't know why the public perception of ducking falls on the fighters. It's the fucking management team and promoters who are scared to lose. If anyone, blame them for the watered down match ups. One can however, blame the fighter for not telling his management what he ultimately wants. All in all, as much as I hate that this fight was made I cannot wait to watch it and enjoy the results. I'll have my wagers posted closer to fight night.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Sergey Kovalev vs Jean Pascal II
A little more data to go on to pick the outcome on this one as this bout is a rematch from March of last year. Only difference this go around is Pascal has a new coach in Freddie Roach. I generally tend to ignore the rhetoric from most pre-fight interviews and press tours but I found something of interest from a quote of Jean Pascal's brother. "Freddie, I've never seen him look better. You've done a good job but he'll never do that in a fight." That quote coupled with the logic that you cannot change a fighter's bad habits in a two month camp have me doubting said 'improvements' from Jean Pascal.
Pascal's camp has openly stated that they made many mistakes in the first bout. The plan this time is to box Kovalev with their superior speed, stay off the ropes, and not run into his power. Two issues with that plan. Kovalev controlled the distance the entire first fight with his jab. It's impossible to effectively box someone that is constantly destroying your rhythm with a better, longer jab. Second, once Pascal gets hit, he is going to revert back to brawling as that is his pure nature as a fighter. All you have to do is check the film. In every fight he's been in, he gets hit and he starts to throw back with wild wide hooks, which leaves him very vulnerable to counters. To his credit I will say he can take some heavy shots as he has a good chin. Unfortunately for him, Kovalev has abnormal power.
Seeing as though Sergey is up to a ridiculous 14/1 favorite in some books I'm going to try my luck on the Under for this one. Under 7.5 rounds at -110 is my pick.
Pascal's camp has openly stated that they made many mistakes in the first bout. The plan this time is to box Kovalev with their superior speed, stay off the ropes, and not run into his power. Two issues with that plan. Kovalev controlled the distance the entire first fight with his jab. It's impossible to effectively box someone that is constantly destroying your rhythm with a better, longer jab. Second, once Pascal gets hit, he is going to revert back to brawling as that is his pure nature as a fighter. All you have to do is check the film. In every fight he's been in, he gets hit and he starts to throw back with wild wide hooks, which leaves him very vulnerable to counters. To his credit I will say he can take some heavy shots as he has a good chin. Unfortunately for him, Kovalev has abnormal power.
Seeing as though Sergey is up to a ridiculous 14/1 favorite in some books I'm going to try my luck on the Under for this one. Under 7.5 rounds at -110 is my pick.
Friday, January 22, 2016
Danny Swift Garcia vs Robert the Ghost Guerrero 1/23
Once a fighter's chin gets cracked and doesn't have proper time to recuperate, it will happen repeatedly. The Ghost needed rest after Kamegai but he fought Thurman a mere 3 months after. Guerrero has heart but Aron freaking Martinez, man of 4 kos in his career, dropped him in his last fight. Guerrero has been hurt consecutively in his last 3. I see Danny winning by tko/ko. The play is under 10.5 rounds at +200
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Mayweather Vs Pacquiao Breakdown & Analysis
In a fight of this magnitude one must wade through all the bullshit, hype,
and hyperbole to uncover helpful insight that MIGHT help one make an
educated guess in picking a victor. Even after finding tidbits of information
the outcome is ultimately uncertain. It seems most are basing their judgements
on predetermined bias, be it race, personality, likeability, or what have you. I
won't try to persuade the reader as much as I'm presenting the facts and
opinions of the boxing knowledgeable crowd. After scouring the internet via: googling details on both training camps,
checking/breaking down common opponents on boxrec.com, youtubing reputable
boxing channels, and watching hours of old film, I found a few things I wanted to share.
Wilson Kayden's youtube channel*, Marvin Cook's boxing philosophy*, and the
combination of the late trainer Don Familton's wisdom* + boxing legend Sugar Ray
Robinson's personal assessment* of what makes a successful boxer got me to
leaning towards what I believe to be the winning side.
It all starts with fundamentals. Familton and Robinson agree that there are three main attributes to obtain boxing greatness. Those three things of equal importance are: balance, timing, and marksmanship (in other words rhythm + accuracy). Although Manny has greatly improved his balance and ring generalship over the years I feel as though Floyd has an advantage in all three categories. The numbers from both compubox (HBO) and fight metric (Showtime) back it up. Floyd lands at a 10% higher accuracy rate and gets hit significantly less, roundabout 15%. Further handing the torch to Mayweather’s camp is none other than Freddie Roach (Pacquiao’s head trainer). He gives an honest breakdown of the advantages of each fighter on fighthub’s youtube channel.* While giving his charge an equal ability in number of advantages, Freddie admits ‘Money’ is the faster fighter with the better chin and greater ring IQ. The areas for concern, according to Roach, are Pacquiao’s superior foot movement and punch output. I feel as though those advantages will be neutralized by Floyd’s impeccable timing (i.e. Khan vs Garcia - Khan representing Manny and Garcia being Floyd for the sake of argument). The fight, in my estimation, will be a combination of Floyd's fight against Zab Judah and Manny's fights against Bradley and Marquez. Manny has not faced a labeled counter puncher besides Juan Manuel Marquez. It took Marquez a few fights but he knocked down and KOed Pacquiao with timing shots. Additionally, my thinking is if Bradley can box Manny to a 1-1 record, albeit controversial, and Marquez can time Manny, then Floyd, who is a superior technician than those two, can do both. On top of that Floyd has home court advantage at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. To play devil's advocate, Floyd hasn't fought many southpaws and there are some who believe he has trouble with them. That's why I brought up the Zab Judah fight. Zab is a southpaw with similar speed to Mayweather, and that's where it parallels to the upcoming bout with Pacquiao. Contrary to popular opinion, the Floyd/Judah fight played out systematically like most other recent Mayweather fights. Around the middle rounds (usually around 4-6) Floyd has the opponent's timing and arsenal figured out. Mayweather started walking Judah down after the middle rounds and I think that foreshadows what will happen this Saturday. One has to be reminded that Floyd hasn't had the weight and height advantage in being the bigger fighter since he absolutely dominated Hatton (KO10) and Marquez (UD12 by 120-107, 119-108, 1118-109).
Even after providing all the evidence I'm not saying it's an easy fight to pick. You have two once in a generation talents and they both have not faced anyone like each other. Freddie Roach turned Manny into an offensive genius and Floyd Mayweather is an all around boxing master. People forget Mayweather was a combination puncher when he was destroying the likes of Corrales. Mayweather changed his style to be more defensive over the years to stand the test of time. He takes fewer risks now than when he was younger, but don't be fooled, he is no slouch offensively. A part of that is because he was gradually fighting in higher weight classes so he had to take more precaution. This is starting to sound like a Mayweather appreciation post so I'll end here with my fight prediction.
I'm gonna cop out and say this fight goes one of two ways.
Scenario #1
Manny outworks Floyd but Floyd lands the cleaner punches throughout. Manny being the busier fighter makes the rounds seem a lot closer than they are and Floyd wins by controversial decision.
Scenario # 2
It's a back and forth affair through the first three rounds with both fighters landing good shots. Around the 3rd or 4th round Floyd realizes with his size/reach advantage he can walk Manny down. Manny being behind in the scorecards with his always aggressive approach launches careless, reaching offense and gets hurt by a clean counter shot. Floyd finishes him by KO in the 8th.
I'm putting my money on option #2. My main bet will be Floyd to win at -210. My side bet will be a significantly smaller wager on Floyd by stoppage at +600.
*Wilson Kayden's breakdown of the fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up-KqGoXzks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH2cF_vNZ6Y
*Marvin Cook's youtube channel
https://www.youtube.com/user/TrueBoxerStance/videos
*Don Familton's Superior boxing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS1VnE7YvMc
*Don Familton and Ray Robinson's keys to boxing
http://www.boxingforum24.com/showthread.php?t=98576
* Freddie Roach's breakdown on Fighthub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfpDrjvSzm0
It all starts with fundamentals. Familton and Robinson agree that there are three main attributes to obtain boxing greatness. Those three things of equal importance are: balance, timing, and marksmanship (in other words rhythm + accuracy). Although Manny has greatly improved his balance and ring generalship over the years I feel as though Floyd has an advantage in all three categories. The numbers from both compubox (HBO) and fight metric (Showtime) back it up. Floyd lands at a 10% higher accuracy rate and gets hit significantly less, roundabout 15%. Further handing the torch to Mayweather’s camp is none other than Freddie Roach (Pacquiao’s head trainer). He gives an honest breakdown of the advantages of each fighter on fighthub’s youtube channel.* While giving his charge an equal ability in number of advantages, Freddie admits ‘Money’ is the faster fighter with the better chin and greater ring IQ. The areas for concern, according to Roach, are Pacquiao’s superior foot movement and punch output. I feel as though those advantages will be neutralized by Floyd’s impeccable timing (i.e. Khan vs Garcia - Khan representing Manny and Garcia being Floyd for the sake of argument). The fight, in my estimation, will be a combination of Floyd's fight against Zab Judah and Manny's fights against Bradley and Marquez. Manny has not faced a labeled counter puncher besides Juan Manuel Marquez. It took Marquez a few fights but he knocked down and KOed Pacquiao with timing shots. Additionally, my thinking is if Bradley can box Manny to a 1-1 record, albeit controversial, and Marquez can time Manny, then Floyd, who is a superior technician than those two, can do both. On top of that Floyd has home court advantage at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. To play devil's advocate, Floyd hasn't fought many southpaws and there are some who believe he has trouble with them. That's why I brought up the Zab Judah fight. Zab is a southpaw with similar speed to Mayweather, and that's where it parallels to the upcoming bout with Pacquiao. Contrary to popular opinion, the Floyd/Judah fight played out systematically like most other recent Mayweather fights. Around the middle rounds (usually around 4-6) Floyd has the opponent's timing and arsenal figured out. Mayweather started walking Judah down after the middle rounds and I think that foreshadows what will happen this Saturday. One has to be reminded that Floyd hasn't had the weight and height advantage in being the bigger fighter since he absolutely dominated Hatton (KO10) and Marquez (UD12 by 120-107, 119-108, 1118-109).
Even after providing all the evidence I'm not saying it's an easy fight to pick. You have two once in a generation talents and they both have not faced anyone like each other. Freddie Roach turned Manny into an offensive genius and Floyd Mayweather is an all around boxing master. People forget Mayweather was a combination puncher when he was destroying the likes of Corrales. Mayweather changed his style to be more defensive over the years to stand the test of time. He takes fewer risks now than when he was younger, but don't be fooled, he is no slouch offensively. A part of that is because he was gradually fighting in higher weight classes so he had to take more precaution. This is starting to sound like a Mayweather appreciation post so I'll end here with my fight prediction.
I'm gonna cop out and say this fight goes one of two ways.
Scenario #1
Manny outworks Floyd but Floyd lands the cleaner punches throughout. Manny being the busier fighter makes the rounds seem a lot closer than they are and Floyd wins by controversial decision.
Scenario # 2
It's a back and forth affair through the first three rounds with both fighters landing good shots. Around the 3rd or 4th round Floyd realizes with his size/reach advantage he can walk Manny down. Manny being behind in the scorecards with his always aggressive approach launches careless, reaching offense and gets hurt by a clean counter shot. Floyd finishes him by KO in the 8th.
I'm putting my money on option #2. My main bet will be Floyd to win at -210. My side bet will be a significantly smaller wager on Floyd by stoppage at +600.
*Wilson Kayden's breakdown of the fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up-KqGoXzks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH2cF_vNZ6Y
*Marvin Cook's youtube channel
https://www.youtube.com/user/TrueBoxerStance/videos
*Don Familton's Superior boxing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS1VnE7YvMc
*Don Familton and Ray Robinson's keys to boxing
http://www.boxingforum24.com/showthread.php?t=98576
* Freddie Roach's breakdown on Fighthub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfpDrjvSzm0
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