Sergey Kovalev vs Jean Pascal II

A little more data to go on to pick the outcome on this one as this bout is a rematch from March of last year. Only difference this go around is Pascal has a new coach in Freddie Roach. I generally tend to ignore the rhetoric from most pre-fight interviews and press tours but I found something of interest from a quote of Jean Pascal's brother. "Freddie, I've never seen him look better. You've done a good job but he'll never do that in a fight." That quote coupled with the logic that you cannot change a fighter's bad habits in a two month camp have me doubting said 'improvements' from Jean Pascal.

Pascal's camp has openly stated that they made many mistakes in the first bout. The plan this time is to box Kovalev with their superior speed, stay off the ropes, and not run into his power. Two issues with that plan. Kovalev controlled the distance the entire first fight with his jab. It's impossible to effectively box someone that is constantly destroying your rhythm with a better, longer jab. Second, once Pascal gets hit, he is going to revert back to brawling as that is his pure nature as a fighter. All you have to do is check the film. In every fight he's been in, he gets hit and he starts to throw back with wild wide hooks, which leaves him very vulnerable to counters. To his credit I will say he can take some heavy shots as he has a good chin. Unfortunately for him, Kovalev has abnormal power.

Seeing as though Sergey is up to a ridiculous 14/1 favorite in some books I'm going to try my luck on the Under for this one. Under 7.5 rounds at -110 is my pick.

Danny Swift Garcia vs Robert the Ghost Guerrero 1/23

Once a fighter's chin gets cracked and doesn't have proper time to recuperate, it will happen repeatedly. The Ghost needed rest after Kamegai but he fought Thurman a mere 3 months after. Guerrero has heart but Aron freaking Martinez, man of 4 kos in his career, dropped him in his last fight. Guerrero has been hurt consecutively in his last 3. I see Danny winning by tko/ko. The play is under 10.5 rounds at +200