Fight Overview:
Thurman needs to stay disciplined and box with distance control and lateral movement. If he engages Garcia in a brawl he is going to get caught as Garcia has superior timing. Garcia has problems with boxers that keep distance and aren't stationary punchers. Thurman's temperament is to stand and trade for at least a handful of moments in each bout but he is smart enough to avoid such altercations with his above average footwork. Garcia is there to be hit in every fight but he uses that to his advantage. The timing on his counters is impeccable. Danny is one of the few fighters who stands in the pocket knowing he'll be hit to deliver the perfect timing on his return fire.
Power:
Thurman has far better natural power but his opponents can always see his punches coming. The fact that he can still KO his opponents while they see his punches is a testament to his punching power.
Conversely, Danny's power is predicated on his timing. Most of his KO victims never see the punch that hurt them.
Chin:
Danny has a world class chin as he is hit hard in almost every fight he is involved in minus the Paulie fight hahaha. Thurman is more vulnerable in that sense as he's been hurt in a handful of his fights. Most notably against Soto Karass and Collazo. That advantage is decreased when you factor in that Danny is still adjusting to the welterweight class.
Experience:
They both have had plenty of experience in their previous fights to get them ready for this clash. Both Danny and Keith can be the lead or fight off the back foot. I suppose Danny has more world-class comp overall, but that was back in the 140 pound weight division.
Range:
Danny prefers to counter but wants to control the range in which the fight is fought in (medium range). His hooks at that range are his best offensive weapon. Keith prefers to keep his range on the outside and load up on his punches when he can.
Weaknesses:
Danny is susceptible to Keith's jab and counter because he has a tendency to reach when out of range with his own jab. Keith is susceptible to Danny's hooks because he gets carried away with his power and wants to exchange at a closer than optimal range.
Coaching:
The corner edge decidedly goes to Dan Birmingham.(Keith's coach) He has trained several world class prospects and Angel Garcia only has the one, his son, Danny Garcia. Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards brings up a great point I may be over looking though. A strong father/son bond is a greater motivating factor than a trainer/son relationship would ever be. Tactically though, no comparison. Birmingham's interview on Thaboxingvoice's youtube channel provides great insight on his boxing acumen. The interviewer on that channel, like myself, highlighted Danny's timing. Birmingham's response? Feints, which works two-fold. Feints keep Danny more flat footed/slow of foot than he already is and throws a counter fighter's timing off.
Intangibles/Pick:
With the eye test, Keith seems to have better speed and power. Danny has better balance and timing. The height and reach seem to be even. Whoever has better discipline and dictates the range of the fight wins. I see this as a 60/40 fight in Thurman's favor so......At the current odds I'd sprinkle a little on Danny Garcia as a 2.5 to 1 dog for the value.
Sidenote. It's funny to me after watching Hurd vs Harrison this past weekend both fighters with the nickname 'Swift' seem to get similar reps from the critics. (I want to specifically call out Virgil Hunter's asinine assessment of Hurd v Harrison. How does a world class trainer disregard in-fight momentum and ineffective partially landed punches? I had no problem with his live scoring as that's all subjective but his bias towards one fighter was elementary. He harped on a single adjustment Hurd should be making throughout the fight while he himself refused or quite simply ignored how he should adjust his commentary with what was going on inside the ring.) Although they have completely different styles, both Danny Garcia and Jarrett Hurd get no credit on their wins. Everyone thinks they are so vulnerable yet they keep winning. They both lack speed so everyone always shits on them but in the squared circle timing>speed.
