In a fight of this magnitude one must wade through all the bullshit, hype,
and hyperbole to uncover helpful insight that MIGHT help one make an
educated guess in picking a victor. Even after finding tidbits of information
the outcome is ultimately uncertain. It seems most are basing their judgements
on predetermined bias, be it race, personality, likeability, or what have you. I
won't try to persuade the reader as much as I'm presenting the facts and
opinions of the boxing knowledgeable crowd. After scouring the internet via: googling details on both training camps,
checking/breaking down common opponents on boxrec.com, youtubing reputable
boxing channels, and watching hours of old film, I found a few things I wanted to share.
Wilson Kayden's youtube channel*, Marvin Cook's boxing philosophy*, and the
combination of the late trainer Don Familton's wisdom* + boxing legend Sugar Ray
Robinson's personal assessment* of what makes a successful boxer got me to
leaning towards what I believe to be the winning side.
It all starts with fundamentals. Familton and Robinson agree that there are
three main attributes to obtain boxing greatness. Those three things of equal importance
are: balance, timing, and marksmanship (in other words rhythm + accuracy). Although
Manny has greatly improved his balance and ring generalship over the years I
feel as though Floyd has an advantage in all three categories. The numbers from
both compubox (HBO) and fight metric (Showtime) back it up. Floyd lands at a
10% higher accuracy rate and gets hit significantly less, roundabout 15%. Further handing the torch to Mayweather’s camp is none other than Freddie Roach
(Pacquiao’s head trainer). He gives an honest breakdown of the advantages of
each fighter on fighthub’s youtube channel.* While giving his charge an equal
ability in number of advantages, Freddie admits ‘Money’ is the faster fighter
with the better chin and greater ring IQ. The areas for concern, according to
Roach, are Pacquiao’s superior foot movement and punch output. I feel as though
those advantages will be neutralized by Floyd’s impeccable timing (i.e. Khan vs Garcia - Khan representing Manny and Garcia being Floyd for the sake of argument). The fight, in my estimation, will be a combination of Floyd's fight against Zab Judah and Manny's fights against Bradley and Marquez. Manny has not faced a labeled counter puncher besides Juan Manuel Marquez. It took Marquez a few fights but he knocked down and KOed Pacquiao with timing shots. Additionally, my thinking is if Bradley can box Manny to a 1-1 record, albeit controversial, and Marquez can time Manny, then Floyd, who is a superior technician than those two, can do both. On top of that Floyd has home court advantage at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. To play devil's advocate, Floyd hasn't fought many southpaws and there are some who believe he has trouble with them. That's why I brought up the Zab Judah fight. Zab is a southpaw with similar speed to Mayweather, and that's where it parallels to the upcoming bout with Pacquiao. Contrary to popular opinion, the Floyd/Judah fight played out systematically like most other recent Mayweather fights. Around the middle rounds (usually around 4-6) Floyd has the opponent's timing and arsenal figured out. Mayweather started walking Judah down after the middle rounds and I think that foreshadows what will happen this Saturday. One has to be reminded that Floyd hasn't had the weight and height advantage in being the bigger fighter since he absolutely dominated Hatton (KO10) and Marquez (UD12 by 120-107, 119-108, 1118-109).
Even after providing all the evidence I'm not saying it's an easy fight to pick. You have two once in a generation talents and they both have not faced anyone like each other. Freddie Roach turned Manny into an offensive genius and Floyd Mayweather is an all around boxing master. People forget Mayweather was a combination puncher when he was destroying the likes of Corrales. Mayweather changed his style to be more defensive over the years to stand the test of time. He takes fewer risks now than when he was younger, but don't be fooled, he is no slouch offensively. A part of that is because he was gradually fighting in higher weight classes so he had to take more precaution. This is starting to sound like a Mayweather appreciation post so I'll end here with my fight prediction.
I'm gonna cop out and say this fight goes one of two ways.
Scenario #1
Manny outworks Floyd but Floyd lands the cleaner punches throughout. Manny being the busier fighter makes the rounds seem a lot closer than they are and Floyd wins by controversial decision.
Scenario # 2
It's a back and forth affair through the first three rounds with both fighters landing good shots. Around the 3rd or 4th round Floyd realizes with his size/reach advantage he can walk Manny down. Manny being behind in the scorecards with his always aggressive approach launches careless, reaching offense and gets hurt by a clean counter shot. Floyd finishes him by KO in the 8th.
I'm putting my money on option #2. My main bet will be Floyd to win at -210. My side bet will be a significantly smaller wager on Floyd by stoppage at +600.
*Wilson Kayden's breakdown of the fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up-KqGoXzks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH2cF_vNZ6Y
*Marvin Cook's youtube channel
https://www.youtube.com/user/TrueBoxerStance/videos
*Don Familton's Superior boxing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS1VnE7YvMc
*Don Familton and Ray Robinson's keys to boxing
http://www.boxingforum24.com/showthread.php?t=98576
* Freddie Roach's breakdown on Fighthub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfpDrjvSzm0
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